While the analytic models had a Georgia Tech win as a near certainty for their game against West Carolina, it’s back on the opposite end of the spectrum for the showdown with Ole Miss.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help review matches and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive scoring system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The FPI’s ultimate goal is not to rank teams 1-128; Vegas has never released the power ratings it uses to define its lines, they would probably look a lot like FPI.”
Although not as high as in the match against Clemson, ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss an 88% chance of victory. That’s a pretty high number and Georgia Tech is going to have to play a full game to have a chance of being in that game on Saturday.
However, compared to another popular analytical model, the FPI is high on Georgia Tech’s chances of winning in this game.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ system has Georgia Tech as the near 28-point underdog in this game, which is a pretty sharp difference from the actual 16-point gap. Connelly’s projected score for the game is 43 -15.
Clearly Georgia Tech is going to have to play a big game to even have a chance against the Rebels on Saturday and most models and analysis won’t give the Yellow Jackets a chance to be upset. It’s up to them to prove them wrong.
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